BR photometry of 2012 precursor flare in OJ287

Precursor flare timings from the historical light curves are compared with theoretical predictions from our model that incorporate effects of an accretion disk and post-Newtonian description for the binary black hole orbit.

We find that the precursor flares coincide with the secondary black hole descending toward the accretion disk of the primary black hole from the observed side, with a mean z-component of approximately z_c_=4000AU. We use this model of precursor flares to predict that precursor flare of similar nature should happen around 2020.96 before the next major outburst in 2022.