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Data · dataset · 2026

Captured QBO-MJO connection in a subseasonal prediction system

Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) impacts the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity with a stronger MJO in QBO easterly (QBOE) than QBO westerly (QBOW) winters.

Description

However, this relationship is poorly represented in the current generation climate models. For the first time, this paper applies a stratospheric zonal-mean nudging in a subseasonal prediction system to capture it.

Two strong MJO cases in a QBO-neutral winter are investigated. The QBO temperature and zonal wind anomalies are added separately as well as together to the stratosphere using nudging in MJO case hindcast. Only by nudging the QBO temperature anomalies while leaving the zonal wind free, can the prediction system capture the observed QBO-MJO connection.

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The tropopause instability is found positively correlated to the MJO amplitude, but it cannot fully explain the captured connection. The free-evolving zonal wind anomalies in the stratosphere due to the nudged QBO temperature are crucial for the captured connection.

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Provenance · 1 source records, 7 field assertions
SourceKeyLast seenRaw
National Center for Atmospheric Research021235fd-f7eb-496d-b086-bfe4bab940ea13 d agoJSON v1
FieldAssertionExtractorEvidence
concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmentalmapping · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0
concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmosphericmapping · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0
created_datesource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0
descriptionsource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0/notes
publication_datesource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0
titlesource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0/title
updated_datesource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0