Detecting climate signals in southern ocean krill growth habitat

Krill are a critical element of Southern Ocean ecosystems as well as biogeochemical cycles, while also supporting an international commercial fishery. In addition to trends forced by global-scale, human-driven warming, the Southern Ocean is highly dynamic, displaying large fluctuations in surface climate on interannual to decadal timescales.

The dual roles of forced climate change and natural variability affecting Antarctic krill habitat, and therefore productivity, complicate interplay of observed trends and contribute to uncertainty in future projections. We use the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) coupled with an empirically derived model of krill growth to detect and attribute trends associated with "forced," human-driven climate change, distinguishing these from variability arising naturally.