Improving lightning and precipitation prediction of severe convection using lightning data assimilation with NCAR WRF-RTFDDA

In this LDA method, graupel mixing ratio (q(g)) is retrieved from observed total lightning. To retrieve q(g) on model grid boxes, column-integrated graupel mass is first calculated using an observation-based linear formula between graupel mass and total lightning rate.

Then the graupel mass is distributed vertically according to the empirical q(g) vertical profiles constructed from model simulations. Finally, a horizontal spread method is utilized to consider the existence of graupel in the adjacent regions of the lightning initiation locations. Based on the retrieved q(g) fields, latent heat is adjusted to account for the latent heat releases associated with the formation of the retrieved graupel and to promote convection at the observed lightning locations, which is conceptually similar to the method developed by Fierro et al. Three severe convection cases were studied to evaluate the LDA scheme for short-term (0-6h) lightning and precipitation forecasts.