Future dust concentration over the Middle East and North Africa region under global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) geoengineering aims to reduce global warming by increasing the reflection of a small amount of the incoming solar radiation to space, hence reducing the global surface temperatures. Using the output from the Geoengineering Large Ensemble Project (GLENS), we show a reduction in the dust concentration in the MENA region under both the global warming (RCP8.5) and GLENS-SAI scenarios compared to the present-day climate.

This reduction in dust over the whole MENA region is stronger under the SAI scenario, except over dust hotspots and for the dry season. In other words, in the summer, with the strongest dust events, more reduction has been projected for the global warming scenario compared to the SAI scenario. The maximum reduction in the dust concentrations in the MENA region (under both global warming and SAI) is due to the weakening of the dust hotspot emissions from the sources of the Middle East.