<p>Uncertainty analysis parameters.</p>

Although physical activity levels in Saudi Arabia have increased in recent years, MASLD shows an increasing prevalence trend, affecting over 30% of the population. This study aimed to determine the impact of increased physical activity, and resulting reduction in hepatic steatosis, on the projected health and economic burden of MASLD in Saudi Arabia.</p> <p>Methods</p><p>We simulated MASLD progression from 2025 to 2045 using a validated Markov model.

Three aspirational physical activity intervention scenarios were evaluated, assuming that 10%, 20%, and 30% of individuals with MASLD achieved a clinically significant ≥30% relative reduction in hepatic steatosis. Health outcomes were measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and economic outcomes were analyzed using U.S.-based direct healthcare costs.</p> <p>Results</p><p>MASLD prevalence in Saudi Arabia is projected to increase from approximately 10.0 million in 2025 to 14.3 million in 2045.