The emergence and transient nature of Arctic amplification in coupled climate models

This Arctic amplification is a defining feature of global warming. However, the Arctic is also home to large internal variability, which can make the detection of a forced climate response difficult.

Here we use results from seven model large ensembles, which have different rates of Arctic warming and sea ice loss, to assess the time of emergence of anthropogenically-forced Arctic amplification. We find that this time of emergence occurs at the turn of the century in all models, ranging across the models by a decade from 1994-2005. We also assess transient changes in this amplified signal across the 21st century and beyond.