Risk Maps for Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome in Southwestern United States

The emergence of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) associated with Peromyscus mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) (2), and transmission to humans occurred through contact with secretions and excretions of ) in the U.S. Southwest in 1993 was thought to be due to weather conditions in 1991-92 that favored local increases in rodent populations. To examine this hypothesis Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery collected the year preceding the HPS outbreak, as well as elevation data were used in a case control study.

Twenty-eight HPS case sites and 170 randomly selected rural control sites were used. There was a highly significant association between brightness values in three of the TM bands (1, 5, and 7) as well as elevation, and the probability of HPS risk the following year. A logistic regression function was derived which when applied to the TM images, predicted areas at risk of HPS.