Dynamics and predictability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in ensemble simulations of Hurricane Patricia (2015)

In this study, we performed ensemble Kalman filter analyses at Patricia's early development stage using both traditional observations and the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field campaign data.

It is shown that assimilating the inner-core TCI observations produces a stronger initial vortex and significantly improves the prediction of RI. Analysis of observation sensitivity experiments shows that the deep-layer dropsonde observations have high impact on both the primary and secondary circulations for the entire troposphere while the radar observations have the most impact on the primary circulations near aircraft flight level.