The use of a numerical weather prediction model to simulate the release of a dense gas with an application to the Lake Nyos disaster of 1986

In this study a method of simulating the spread of dense gases in a numerical weather prediction model is presented. This approach has the advantage that dense gases can be simulated in regions of complex terrain using realistic forcings (in terms of both the driving meteorological fields and the representation of surface characteristics).

The model formulation is tested against semi-idealized gravity-current-type experiments and similar modelling studies. As an example application, the Lake Nyos disaster of 1986, where a dense CO2 cloud spread through a mountainous region of Cameroon, is simulated. The predicted spread of CO2 agrees (qualitatively) very well with the observations.