Allied Isolation Dataset: Simulation, Historical Validation, Falsification, and Condition Discovery

<p dir="ltr">This dataset accompanies the development and empirical testing of the Allied Isolation framework, which examines whether a state can become more strongly connected to its formal allies while simultaneously becoming less connected to the wider international system.</p><p dir="ltr">The dataset contains aggregated outputs from theoretical simulations, historical analyses using alliance and bilateral trade data, a falsification test using militarized interstate disputes, and exploratory analyses of the conditions associated with Allied Isolation.

Alliance–Connectivity Divergence (ACD) is introduced as a measure of the divergence between alliance-linked connectivity and extra-alliance connectivity.</p><p dir="ltr">The research proceeded as a falsifiable sequence. Simulations first demonstrated that strengthened intra-alliance connectivity and declining external connectivity can coexist. Historical alliance–trade analyses then identified corresponding patterns in observed state-year data.