Prediction of diverse Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the GFDL SPEAR model

Using the GFDL SPEAR S2S prediction system, we evaluate the BSISO prediction skills based on 20-yr (2000-19) hindcast experiments with initializations from May to October. It is revealed that the overall BSISO prediction skill using all hindcasts reaches out to 22 days as measured by BSISO indices before the bivariate anomalous correlation coefficient (ACC) drops below 0.5.

Results also show that the northeastwardpropagating canonical BSISO (CB) event has a higher prediction skill than the northward dipole BSISO (DB) event (28 vs 23 days). This is attributed to CB's more periodic nature, resulting in its longer persistence, while DB events are more episodic accompanied by a rapid demise after reaching maximum enhanced convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean. From a forecaster's perspective, a precursory strong Kelvin wave component in the equatorial western Pacific signifies the subsequent development of a CB event, which is likely more predictable.