Supplementary file 1_Climate extremes and grain green productivity in China: buffering effects of agricultural insurance and high-standard farmland.docx

Econometric estimates show that China’s GGTFP increased by an average of 1.7% annually during the study period, mainly driven by green technological progress. However, extreme climate risk exhibited an overall upward trend and significantly inhibited GGTFP. Among different climate hazards, extreme rainfall and extreme drought had stronger negative effects than extreme temperature events, suggesting that water-related climate shocks are particularly detrimental to green grain production.

The adverse impact of extreme climate risk was more pronounced in high-relief regions and non-major grain-producing areas, revealing substantial spatial heterogeneity in climate vulnerability. Further analysis indicates that agricultural insurance and high-standard farmland development both significantly attenuate the negative effect of extreme climate risk on GGTFP, with interaction coefficients of 0.040 and 0.037, respectively.

These findings suggest that risk-sharing mechanisms and climate-resilient farmland infrastructure can help stabilize green productivity under increasing climate uncertainty. This study provides empirical evidence on the green productivity consequences of multi-hazard climate risks and highlights the importance of integrating agricultural insurance, farmland infrastructure improvement, food security, and environmental protection into climate-resilient agricultural development strategies.</p>