Decadal prediction centers prepare for a major volcanic eruption

The occurrence of a large volcanic eruption such as that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, however, would invalidate these forecasts and prompt producers to modify their predictions.

To assist and prepare decadal prediction centers for this eventuality, the Volcanic Response activities under the World Climate Research Programme’s Atmospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate (APARC) and the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) organized a community exercise to respond to a hypothetical large eruption occurring in April 2022. As part of this exercise, the Easy Volcanic Aerosol forcing generator was used to provide stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical properties customized to the configurations of individual decadal prediction models.