Spatiotemporal characteristics of pertussis in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2024

The reported incidence rate showed an overall upward trend, and in 2024, the reported incidence rate reached the highest level in history (19.20/100 000) since the implementation of children planning immunization.The regions with high incidence rate were mainly located in Jinan city, Liaocheng city, Tai'an city, Zibo city, Binzhou city, Jining city, Dezhou city,Zaozhuang city and Dongying city, and mainly in the central and western regions of Shandong Province.

The global spatial autocorrelation analysis found that the Moran'I index of incidence rate of pertussis in Shandong Province in each year from 2015 to 2024 was>0.00, showing obvious spatial clustering. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the "high high" clustering areas were mainly distributed in the central and western regions of Shandong Province, including some counties in Jinan, Liaocheng, Tai'an, Binzhou and Dezhou city, which were hotspots for pertussis incidence in Shandong Province.

The spatial trend surface analysis showed that the annual incidence rate of pertussis in each year basically decreased from west to east. In the early stage of the north-south direction, there was a curved trend of low north-south and high in the middle. In the middle and later stages, the northern part was mostly in a higher position, indicating that the central and western regions have always been high-risk areas for pertussis in Shandong Province.Conclusions The incidence of pertussis in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2024 has obvious spatiotemporal clustering, and the central and western regions are key areas for pertussis prevention and control.