The Maturity Structure of Green Subsidies:}\\

This choice is consequential when success depends</p><p dir="ltr">on complementary projects. In Chinese firm data, fewer firms receive</p><p dir="ltr">innovation subsidies five years after entry, yet average awards, including</p><p dir="ltr">zeros, are larger.

We study this timing puzzle in a model where firms invest,</p><p dir="ltr">learn, and expand under uncertainty about collective success. Because later</p><p dir="ltr">support rewards the firm's final position, it also raises the return to</p><p dir="ltr">establishing an installed base today. A planner maximizing transition</p><p dir="ltr">capacity therefore funds both stages but allocates a larger share to later</p><p dir="ltr">support.