Data Sheet 1_Land-use dynamics and multi-scenario projections in a mountainous ecological barrier: ecosystem service value responses and spatial sensitivity.pdf

Introduction<p>Regional changes in ecosystem service value (ESV) may remain limited even when land-use conversion produces pronounced ecological gains or losses at specific locations, making aggregate scenario comparisons insufficient for identifying spatially concentrated responses.</p>Methods<p>Taking the Shaanxi section of the Qinling Mountains as a representative mountainous ecological barrier region, this study examined land-use dynamics from 2000 to 2020 and projected land-use patterns to 2040 under natural development, urban development, cropland protection, and ecological protection scenarios.

We coupled Markov–PLUS scenario projections with an equivalent-factor ESV assessment and developed a 240-m grid-based sensitivity index (SI) to relate local relative ESV change to the intensity of land-use conversion.</p>Results<p>Historical hindcasting achieved an overall accuracy of 92.03% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.780. Across the four scenarios, total ESV changed only modestly, ranging from a 0.84% decline under urban development to a 0.42% increase under ecological protection.