Scalable Bayesian Model Averaging Through Local Information Propagation

This latent variable representation takes the form of a Markov process, thereby allowing information propagation algorithms to be applied for sampling from model space posteriors. In particular, We propose a sequential Monte Carlo method for achieving effective unbiased Bayesian model averaging in high-dimensional problems, using proposal distributions constructed using local information propagation.

The method—called LIPS for local information propagation based sampling—is illustrated using real and simulated examples with dimensionality ranging from 15 to 1000, and its performance in estimating posterior inclusion probabilities and in out-of-sample prediction is compared to those of several other methods—namely, MCMC, BAS, iBMA, and LASSO. In addition, it is shown that the latent variable representation can also serve as a modeling tool for specifying model space priors that account for knowledge regarding model complexity and conditional inclusion relationships.